MD 0071 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TN...SOUTHERN KY...FAR SOUTHWEST VA...FAR WESTERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 0071
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0410 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025
Areas affected...Parts of middle/eastern TN...southern KY...far
southwest VA...far western NC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 062210Z - 070015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the
early evening, including the potential for a couple of supercells
with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or
two.
DISCUSSION...Relatively strong diurnal heating occurred this
afternoon from northeast TN into southeast KY, with greater
cloudiness and weaker heating noted across the rest of TN.
Seasonably rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE of around
500-1000 J/kg near and south of a surface front extending from
southeast KY into northwest TN, and area VWPs continue to depict
strong deep-layer flow/shear that is conditionally favorable for
organized convection.
Thus far this afternoon, robust convection has mostly been confined
to areas north of the boundary, aided by modest low-level warm
advection, though a couple stronger cells have recently developed
across far southeast KY, while another cell is gradually becoming
better organized east of Clarksville, TN. Coverage of storms into
the early evening remains uncertain, with stronger frontal
convergence expected across western TN (where cloudiness has
persisted), and more nebulous large-scale ascent expected in the
short-term across southeast KY and eastern TN, where stronger
heating occurred. However, with time, a couple of supercells and/or
stronger clusters could develop and spread eastward into the early
evening. Should this occur, a threat for locally damaging wind and
hail could evolve with time. Also, while low-level flow is rather
modest and veered across the warm sector, low-level shear/SRH is
sufficient to support some tornado threat, especially if any
right-moving supercells can be sustained into the early evening.
While coverage and magnitude of the threat remain somewhat
uncertain, watch issuance remains possible if an increase in
organized convection appears imminent.
..Dean/Hart.. 02/06/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...
MEG...
LAT...LON 36578730 36838639 37058540 37288382 37378194 37108145
36528154 35888225 35518307 35448376 35458472 35618597
35698676 35818739 35898781 36198798 36578730
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