MD 0377 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MIDDLE/NORTHEAST TN INTO SOUTHEAST KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0941 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025
Areas affected...Middle/northeast TN into southeast KY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 031441Z - 031615Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Monitoring for storm intensification through the morning.
Some threat for all severe hazards could evolve with time.
DISCUSSION...Occasional supercell structures continue to be observed
this morning with convection moving across middle/northeast TN. Thus
far, these cells have generally stayed north of an outflow boundary
draped across the region, though the cell currently south of
Nashville is located in the immediate vicinity of this front. With
some heating/destabilization ongoing south of the front, there will
be some potential for storm intensification with cells that can
remain rooted near the boundary, which may move northward through
the day.
With MLCAPE expected to increase through the 500-1000 J/kg
along/south of the front and favorable wind profiles expected to
persist through the day, some threat for all severe hazards could
evolve with time near the boundary, with an isolated hail and
damaging wind threat north of the boundary. However, with generally
modest large-scale ascent expected through the morning, the
short-term severe threat and need for watch issuance remains
uncertain.
..Dean/Guyer.. 04/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...
LAT...LON 36248666 37098489 37358389 37178332 36978312 36878304
36608303 36088384 35928449 35838494 35748547 35648610
35648662 36248666
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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MD 0376 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0376
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0855 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025
Areas affected...South-central into southeast OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 031355Z - 031530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will spread
northeastward this morning. The longevity of the morning threat
remains uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Despite being elevated above an outflow-reinforced
front draped across north TX, a bowing segment has recently produced
several severe gusts ranging from 63-72 mph across south-central OK.
This bowing segment is moving along the gradient of elevated
buoyancy, with MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and strong effective shear
(greater than 50 kt) providing a favorable environment for
maintenance of this bow as it moves east-northeastward.
Given its elevated nature and location near the gradient of
favorable MUCAPE, the longevity of the severe threat with this
bowing segment is uncertain. However, a threat for severe gusts and
isolated hail through at least mid morning. If this storm cluster
and bowing segment can keep pace with returning deeper moisture
above the surface, then it could persist later into the morning with
a continued severe threat.
..Dean/Guyer.. 04/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 34729700 35119641 35559522 34659475 34309476 33989611
33909661 33989655 34279676 34729700
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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