Space weather

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Update
CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: 2025-01-07 11.52 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3410
Begin Time: 2025 Jan 06 1430 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1508 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Issued: 2025-01-06 17.05 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2025 Jan 06 1628 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 2025-01-06 16.51 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2025 Jan 06 1621 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 445 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: 2025-01-06 14.42 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 06 1430 UTC
Station: GOES-16

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 2025-01-06 05.59 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 06 0558 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2025-01-06 05.03 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2025 Jan 06 0503 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Jan 06 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Issued: 2025-01-05 22.22 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2025 Jan 04 2235 UTC
Maximum Time: 2025 Jan 05 0055 UTC
End Time: 2025 Jan 05 0940 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 20 pfu
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: 2025-01-05 17.38 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jan 06: G1 (Minor) Jan 07: None (Below G1) Jan 08: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment: Two CMEs that originated from or near AR 3939 left the Sun on 04 Jan. Modeling of these events suggest a glancing blow to Earth is possible by late on 06 Jan.

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Issued: 2025-01-05 11.55 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 591
Valid From: 2025 Jan 04 2140 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 05 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2025-01-05 11.48 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4795
Valid From: 2025 Jan 04 0244 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 05 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Issued: 2025-01-04 22.52 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2025 Jan 04 2235 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2025-01-04 22.13 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1965
Valid From: 2025 Jan 04 0525 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 05 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2025-01-04 22.13 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4794
Valid From: 2025 Jan 04 0244 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 05 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Issued: 2025-01-04 21.43 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2025 Jan 04 2140 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Jan 05 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2025-01-04 19.47 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 04 1940 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2025-01-04 18.07 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 04 1759 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Issued: 2025-01-04 17.04 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2025 Jan 04 1444 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2025-01-04 14.22 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1964
Valid From: 2025 Jan 04 0525 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 04 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 2025-01-04 13.31 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2025 Jan 04 1252 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 314 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Issued: 2025-01-04 13.01 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2025 Jan 04 1234 UTC
Maximum Time: 2025 Jan 04 1248 UTC
End Time: 2025 Jan 04 1256 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.8
Location: N13E47
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2025-01-04 12.45 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 04 1243 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: 2025-01-04 08.18 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2025 Jan 04 0818 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Jan 04 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2025-01-04 07.54 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 04 0749 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2025-01-04 05.50 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 04 0547 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Issued: 2025-01-04 05.34 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2025 Jan 04 0458 UTC
Maximum Time: 2025 Jan 04 0518 UTC
End Time: 2025 Jan 04 0527 UTC
X-ray Class: M7.6
Location: N13E47
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2025-01-04 05.23 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2025 Jan 04 0525 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Jan 04 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2025-01-04 05.15 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 04 0514 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 2025-01-04 05.14 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 04 0509 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Issued: 2025-01-04 03.09 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2025 Jan 04 0300 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Jan 04 0400 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2025 Jan 04 0211 UTC

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2025-01-04 02.44 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2025 Jan 04 0244 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Jan 04 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Issued: 2025-01-04 00.17 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2025 Jan 03 2350 UTC
Maximum Time: 2025 Jan 03 2356 UTC
End Time: 2025 Jan 04 0005 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.9
Optical Class: 1n
Location: N11E57
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2025-01-03 23.57 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 03 2356 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 2025-01-03 23.21 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2025 Jan 03 2244 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 465 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Issued: 2025-01-03 23.05 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2025 Jan 03 2232 UTC
Maximum Time: 2025 Jan 03 2241 UTC
End Time: 2025 Jan 03 2251 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.1
Location: N11E57
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Comment: Proton Prediction Model resulted in a 3% chance for 10 MeV Protons to exceed threshold beginning about 13 hours from maximum time.

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2025-01-03 22.41 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 03 2241 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Issued: 2025-01-03 12.00 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2025 Jan 03 1129 UTC
Maximum Time: 2025 Jan 03 1139 UTC
End Time: 2025 Jan 03 1149 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.2
Location: N13E58
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2025-01-03 11.39 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 03 1136 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2025-01-03 02.24 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4792
Valid From: 2024 Dec 31 1615 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 03 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: 2025-01-02 22.35 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jan 03: None (Below G1) Jan 04: G1 (Minor) Jan 05: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2025-01-02 20.35 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4791
Valid From: 2024 Dec 31 1615 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 03 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2025-01-02 10.25 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4790
Valid From: 2024 Dec 31 1615 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 02 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2025-01-02 10.25 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 02 1025 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2025-01-02 10.20 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2025 Jan 02 1020 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Jan 02 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Issued: 2025-01-01 21.10 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 01 2059 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: 2025-01-01 18.28 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 01 1826 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2025-01-01 18.11 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 01 1805 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: 2025-01-01 18.02 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 557
Valid From: 2025 Jan 01 0950 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 02 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Issued: 2025-01-01 18.02 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Extension to Serial Number: 122
Valid From: 2025 Jan 01 1124 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 02 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2025-01-01 18.02 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4789
Valid From: 2024 Dec 31 1615 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 02 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2025-01-01 18.02 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1961
Valid From: 2024 Dec 31 1615 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 02 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Issued: 2025-01-01 17.47 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 01 1741 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Issued: 2025-01-01 17.43 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 01 1736 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: 2025-01-01 16.30 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 01 1623 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2025-01-01 15.46 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 01 1541 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2025-01-01 14.18 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4788
Valid From: 2024 Dec 31 1615 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 01 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Issued: 2025-01-01 14.10 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 01 1405 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: 2025-01-01 13.37 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 556
Valid From: 2025 Jan 01 0950 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 01 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Issued: 2025-01-01 13.37 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Extension to Serial Number: 121
Valid From: 2025 Jan 01 1124 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 01 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2025-01-01 13.37 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1960
Valid From: 2024 Dec 31 1615 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 01 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: 2025-01-01 13.05 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 01 1305 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2025-01-01 12.52 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 01 1252 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Issued: 2025-01-01 11.24 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2025 Jan 01 1124 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Jan 01 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G3 or greater

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Issued: 2025-01-01 10.44 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 01 1044 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: 2025-01-01 09.50 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2025 Jan 01 0950 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Jan 01 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2025-01-01 09.46 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 01 0945 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2025-01-01 08.53 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 01 0853 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2025-01-01 05.54 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4787
Valid From: 2024 Dec 31 1615 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 01 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2025-01-01 05.54 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1959
Valid From: 2024 Dec 31 1615 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 01 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2025-01-01 04.58 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Jan 01 0458 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2024-12-31 23.06 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1958
Valid From: 2024 Dec 31 1615 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 01 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUMMARY
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Issued: 2024-12-31 17.46 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2024 Dec 31 1621 UTC
Deviation: 17 nT
Station: Boulder

Comment: This is a correction to the previous Summary message that had an incorrect SI time at Earth.

SUMMARY
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Issued: 2024-12-31 17.13 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2024 Dec 31 1555 UTC
Deviation: 17 nT
Station: Boulder

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 2024-12-31 16.56 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 31 1654 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2024-12-31 16.14 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Dec 31 1615 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Dec 31 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-31 16.14 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Dec 31 1615 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Jan 01 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Issued: 2024-12-31 16.08 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2024 Dec 31 1650 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Dec 31 1720 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2024 Dec 31 1555 UTC

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-12-30 17.27 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 30 1645 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 30 1654 UTC
End Time: 2025 Dec 30 1701 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.0
Optical Class: 1n
Location: N11W52
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-12-30 16.55 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 30 1654 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Issued: 2024-12-30 05.12 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 30 0429 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 30 0431 UTC
End Time: 2024 Dec 30 0434 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.1
Location: S19W50
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Comment: No initial Alert issued as X1.5 flare from Region 3936 was ongoing.

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Issued: 2024-12-30 04.52 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 30 0401 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 30 0414 UTC
End Time: 2024 Dec 30 0428 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.5
Optical Class: 2n
Location: N12W51
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: 2024-12-30 04.48 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 30 0429 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 30 0429 UTC
End Time: 2024 Dec 30 0431 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 430 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 255 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: 2024-12-30 04.29 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 30 0408 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 30 0410 UTC
End Time: 2024 Dec 30 0415 UTC
Duration: 7 minutes
Peak Flux: 1000 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 255 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-12-30 04.16 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 30 0410 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted
Issued: 2024-12-29 20.00 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Dec 30: None (Below G1) Dec 31: G3 (Strong) Jan 01: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment: Isolated periods of strong geomagnetic storming are likely on 31 Dec due to CME effects. Lingering effects will likely wane to minor storming levels over the course of 01 Jan.

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-12-29 15.36 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 29 1502 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 29 1509 UTC
End Time: 2024 Dec 29 1524 UTC
X-ray Class: M7.1
Location: N12W38
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-12-29 15.11 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 29 1507 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Issued: 2024-12-29 07.41 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 29 0708 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 29 0718 UTC
End Time: 2024 Dec 29 0734 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.1
Location: N10W33
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-12-29 07.17 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 29 0714 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Issued: 2024-12-29 06.50 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 29 0520 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: 2024-12-28 11.30 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 28 1118 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 28 1119 UTC
End Time: 2024 Dec 28 1120 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 300 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 259 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-12-26 03.32 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 26 0252 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 26 0315 UTC
End Time: 2024 Dec 26 0325 UTC
X-ray Class: M7.4
Location: N19E52
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-12-26 03.12 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 26 0311 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 2024-12-25 06.02 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 25 0447 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1064 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 2024-12-24 23.17 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 24 2313 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-24 21.52 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Dec 24 2150 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Dec 25 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Comment: Correcting times of canceled K=4 warning

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-24 21.46 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Dec 24 2200 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Dec 25 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: 2024-12-24 17.47 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Dec 25: G1 (Minor) Dec 26: G1 (Minor) Dec 27: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 2024-12-24 09.04 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 24 0841 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 568 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: 2024-12-23 20.58 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Dec 24: None (Below G1) Dec 25: G1 (Minor) Dec 26: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-23 17.23 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Dec 23 1730 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Dec 23 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: 2024-12-23 15.38 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 23 1520 UTC
Station: GOES-16

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-12-23 11.41 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 23 1106 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 23 1112 UTC
End Time: 2024 Dec 23 1116 UTC
X-ray Class: M8.9
Location: S18E30
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 2024-12-23 11.25 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 23 1111 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 731 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: 2024-12-23 11.21 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 23 1109 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 23 1109 UTC
End Time: 2024 Dec 23 1109 UTC
Duration: 1 minutes
Peak Flux: 320 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 223 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-12-23 11.11 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 23 1110 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 2024-12-23 03.01 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 23 0259 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-22 23.02 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Dec 22 2302 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Dec 23 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-21 23.54 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4781
Valid From: 2024 Dec 21 2059 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Dec 22 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 2024-12-21 21.02 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 21 2059 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-21 21.02 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Dec 21 2059 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Dec 21 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Issued: 2024-12-21 20.26 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 21 1942 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 2024-12-21 20.26 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 21 1939 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1314 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: 2024-12-21 02.45 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 21 0037 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 21 0038 UTC
End Time: 2024 Dec 21 0038 UTC
Duration: 1 minutes
Peak Flux: 229 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 184 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-21 01.35 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Dec 21 0133 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Dec 21 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Issued: 2024-12-20 11.29 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 20 1118 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 20 1118 UTC
End Time: 2024 Dec 20 1118 UTC
Duration: 1 minutes
Peak Flux: 220 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 176 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 2024-12-20 10.30 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 20 1013 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 726 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 2024-12-20 03.01 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 20 0300 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-20 00.58 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Dec 20 0057 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Dec 20 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-18 23.57 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4777
Valid From: 2024 Dec 16 1935 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Dec 19 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-18 17.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4776
Valid From: 2024 Dec 16 1935 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Dec 18 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-18 11.54 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4775
Valid From: 2024 Dec 16 1935 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Dec 18 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-18 05.54 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4774
Valid From: 2024 Dec 16 1935 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Dec 18 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-17 17.54 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4773
Valid From: 2024 Dec 16 1935 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Dec 18 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2024-12-17 17.54 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1956
Valid From: 2024 Dec 17 0411 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Dec 17 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-17 11.51 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4772
Valid From: 2024 Dec 16 1935 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Dec 17 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2024-12-17 11.51 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1955
Valid From: 2024 Dec 17 0411 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Dec 17 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2024-12-17 08.07 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 17 0755 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUMMARY
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Issued: 2024-12-17 05.26 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2024 Dec 17 0519 UTC
Deviation: 24 nT
Station: Sitka

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 2024-12-17 05.21 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 17 0518 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: 2024-12-17 05.03 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2024 Dec 17 0503 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Dec 17 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

WARNING
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Issued: 2024-12-17 04.50 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2024 Dec 17 0515 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Dec 17 0600 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2024 Dec 17 0445 UTC

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 2024-12-17 04.12 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Dec 17 0411 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Dec 17 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-16 23.41 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4771
Valid From: 2024 Dec 16 1935 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Dec 17 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 2024-12-16 20.59 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 16 2059 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-16 19.35 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Dec 16 1935 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Dec 16 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 2024-12-15 17.07 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 15 1427 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 320 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-14 23.56 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4769
Valid From: 2024 Dec 14 1637 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Dec 15 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-14 16.40 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Dec 14 1637 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Dec 14 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: 2024-12-12 15.04 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 12 1445 UTC
Station: GOES16

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-12-11 16.10 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 11 1532 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 11 1549 UTC
End Time: 2024 Dec 11 1556 UTC
X-ray Class: M6.7
Location: S06W94
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Comment: Flare occurred from departed Region 3912.

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-12-11 15.50 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 11 1548 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-12-10 07.14 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Dec 10 0636 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Dec 10 0648 UTC
End Time: 2024 Dec 10 0655 UTC
X-ray Class: M6.4
Optical Class: na
Location: S18W73
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Issued: 2024-12-10 06.50 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 10 0647 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 2024-12-10 00.02 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 09 2359 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-09 22.18 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Dec 09 2217 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Dec 10 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 2024-12-09 02.16 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Dec 09 0215 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 2024-12-09 01.31 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Dec 09 0130 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Dec 09 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Table

Date Radio flux 10.7 cm SESC Sunspot number Sunspot area 10E-6 New regions GOES15 X-ray Bkgd flux Flares
X-ray Optical
C M X S 1 2 3
8th December 2024 178 103 870 2 * 12 1 1 3 1 1 0
9th December 2024 173 94 580 1 * 17 0 0 3 1 0 0
10th December 2024 172 125 540 2 * 27 3 0 4 1 0 0
11th December 2024 161 114 610 0 * 11 3 0 4 1 0 0
12th December 2024 161 91 610 1 * 7 2 0 3 0 0 0
13th December 2024 164 82 590 0 * 17 3 0 8 0 0 0
14th December 2024 171 86 660 1 * 10 0 0 4 0 0 0
15th December 2024 172 97 760 1 * 19 0 0 5 1 0 0
16th December 2024 167 90 750 0 * 6 0 0 3 0 0 0
17th December 2024 170 88 680 0 * 7 0 0 5 0 0 0
18th December 2024 174 82 860 1 * 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
19th December 2024 175 96 880 1 * 11 3 0 3 0 0 0
20th December 2024 184 148 1310 4 * 9 2 0 4 0 0 0
21st December 2024 195 152 1360 2 * 9 1 0 7 1 0 0
22nd December 2024 223 176 1710 1 * 11 3 0 8 1 0 0
23rd December 2024 238 199 1920 2 * 5 3 0 3 0 0 0
24th December 2024 259 219 2130 1 * 6 7 0 10 2 0 0
25th December 2024 253 218 1950 1 * 6 3 0 7 0 0 0
26th December 2024 256 211 1770 0 * 4 1 0 4 1 1 0
27th December 2024 259 233 1120 2 * 11 2 0 18 1 1 0
28th December 2024 260 213 1225 0 * 5 3 0 34 3 0 0
29th December 2024 255 209 1090 1 * 1 22 1 36 4 0 0
30th December 2024 224 172 1090 1 * 7 13 2 24 7 1 0
31st December 2024 218 162 1040 1 * 6 4 0 13 0 0 0
1st January 2025 219 163 1200 2 * 10 4 0 6 1 0 0
2nd January 2025 212 173 1270 2 * 3 1 0 6 1 0 0
3rd January 2025 200 190 1370 1 * 6 3 2 3 3 0 0
4th January 2025 209 193 1245 3 * 9 3 1 7 2 0 0
5th January 2025 169 178 830 0 * 5 4 0 9 0 2 0
6th January 2025 172 154 720 0 * 11 3 0 9 2 0 0
Average/Total 201 150 1091 34 274 97 7 253 34 6 0

Summary graph

Flares

Solar wind

Solar Wind

The solar wind is a stream of plasma released from the upper atmosphere of the Sun. It consists of mostly electrons, protons and alpha particles with energies usually between 1.5 and 10 keV. The stream of particles varies in density, temperature, and speed over time and over solar longitude. These particles can escape the Sun's gravity because of their high energy, from the high temperature of the corona and magnetic, electrical and electromagnetic phenomena in it.

The solar wind is divided into two components, respectively termed the slow solar wind and the fast solar wind. The slow solar wind has a velocity of about 400 km/s, a temperature of 1.4–1.6×10e6 K and a composition that is a close match to the corona. By contrast, the fast solar wind has a typical velocity of 750 km/s, a temperature of 8×10e5 K and it nearly matches the composition of the Sun's photosphere. The slow solar wind is twice as dense and more variable in intensity than the fast solar wind. The slow wind also has a more complex structure, with turbulent regions and large-scale structures.

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (2800 MHz) is an excellent indicator of solar activity. Often called the F10.7 index, it is one of the longest running records of solar activity. The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records. Reported in “solar flux units”, (s.f.u.), the F10.7 can vary from below 50 s.f.u., to above 300 s.f.u., over the course of a solar cycle.

Flares

Flares

A solar flare is a sudden flash of brightness observed over the Sun's surface or the solar limb, which is interpreted as a large energy release of up to 6 × 10e25 joules of energy. They are often, but not always, followed by a colossal coronal mass ejection. The flare ejects clouds of electrons, ions, and atoms through the corona of the sun into space. These clouds typically reach Earth a day or two after the event.

Solar flares affect all layers of the solar atmosphere (photosphere, chromosphere, and corona), when the plasma medium is heated to tens of millions of kelvin, while the electrons, protons, and heavier ions are accelerated to near the speed of light. They produce radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum at all wavelengths, from radio waves to gamma rays, although most of the energy is spread over frequencies outside the visual range and for this reason the majority of the flares are not visible to the naked eye and must be observed with special instruments. Flares occur in active regions around sunspots, where intense magnetic fields penetrate the photosphere to link the corona to the solar interior. Flares are powered by the sudden (timescales of minutes to tens of minutes) release of magnetic energy stored in the corona. The same energy releases may produce coronal mass ejections (CME), although the relation between CMEs and flares is still not well established.

The frequency of occurrence of solar flares varies, from several per day when the Sun is particularly "active" to less than one every week when the Sun is "quiet", following the 11-year cycle (the solar cycle). Large flares are less frequent than smaller ones.

Classification

Solar flares are classified as A, B, C, M or X according to the peak flux (in watts per square metre, W/m2) of 100 to 800 picometre X-rays near Earth, as measured on the GOES spacecraft.

Classification Peak Flux Range at 100-800 picometer
W/m2
A < 10e-7
B 10e-7 to 10e-6
C 10e-6 to 10e-5
M 10e-5 to 10e-4
X 10e-4 to 10e-3
Z > 10e-3

An earlier flare classification is based on Hα spectral observations. The scheme uses both the intensity and emitting surface. The classification in intensity is qualitative, referring to the flares as: (f)aint, (n)ormal or (b)rilliant. The emitting surface is measured in terms of millionths of the hemisphere and is described below. (The total hemisphere area AH = 6.2 × 1012 km2.)

Classification Corrected area
(millionths of hemisphere)
S < 100
1 100 - 250
2 250 - 600
3 600 - 1200
4 > 1200

Sunspot number

Sunspots

Sunspots are temporary phenomena on the photosphere of the Sun that appear visibly as dark spots compared to surrounding regions. They correspond to concentrations of magnetic field that inhibit convection and result in reduced surface temperature compared to the surrounding photosphere. Sunspots usually appear in pairs, with pair members of opposite magnetic polarity. The number of sunspots varies according to the approximately 11-year solar cycle.

Sunspot populations quickly rise and more slowly fall on an irregular cycle of 11 years, although significant variations in the number of sunspots attending the 11-year period are known over longer spans of time. For example, from 1900 to the 1960s, the solar maxima trend of sunspot count has been upward; from the 1960s to the present, it has diminished somewhat. Over the last decades the Sun has had a markedly high average level of sunspot activity; it was last similarly active over 8,000 years ago.

The number of sunspots correlates with the intensity of solar radiation over the period since 1979, when satellite measurements of absolute radiative flux became available. Since sunspots are darker than the surrounding photosphere it might be expected that more sunspots would lead to less solar radiation and a decreased solar constant. However, the surrounding margins of sunspots are brighter than the average, and so are hotter; overall, more sunspots increase the Sun's solar constant or brightness. The variation caused by the sunspot cycle to solar output is relatively small, on the order of 0.1% of the solar constant (a peak-to-trough range of 1.3 W/m2 compared to 1366 W/m2 for the average solar constant).

K-indices



Today


0h
UTC
3h
UTC
6h
UTC
9h
UTC
12h
UTC
15h
UTC
18h
UTC
21h
UTC
2. 33 2. 67 2.



Data


Estimated Planetary

Estimated Planetary

Date A K-indices (UTC)
0h 3h 6h 9h 12h 15h 18h 21h
9th December 2024 16 4. 00 3. 00 2.
10th December 2024 8 3. 00 2. 33 2.
11th December 2024 6 2. 00 2. 33 2.
12th December 2024 6 2. 67 2. 00 1.
13th December 2024 4 0. 33 0. 33 1.
14th December 2024 10 1. 00 1. 33 1.
15th December 2024 12 3. 00 3. 00 2.
16th December 2024 14 1. 33 3. 00 3.
17th December 2024 29 4. 00 5. 33 4.
18th December 2024 15 3. 67 2. 00 2.
19th December 2024 11 4. 00 3. 00 1.
20th December 2024 13 3. 67 3. 00 1.
21st December 2024 16 3. 33 3. 33 2.
22nd December 2024 14 2. 33 2. 33 2.
23rd December 2024 12 3. 67 2. 00 2.
24th December 2024 12 2. 67 2. 67 2.
25th December 2024 5 2. 33 2. 00 1.
26th December 2024 3 0. 33 0. 33 0.
27th December 2024 4 1. 00 0. 33 0.
28th December 2024 4 0. 67 0. 67 1.
29th December 2024 5 1. 33 0. 67 1.
30th December 2024 7 1. 00 2. 00 2.
31st December 2024 14 0. 33 0. 67 2.
1st January 2025 86 4. 00 5. 33 5.
2nd January 2025 22 3. 67 2. 67 3.
3rd January 2025 9 3. 33 3. 00 2.
4th January 2025 32 2. 67 4. 67 5.
5th January 2025 20 3. 67 2. 67 3.
6th January 2025 15 3. 33 4. 00 3.
7th January 2025 11 2. 33 2. 67 2.

Middle Latitude

Date A K-indices
9th December 2024 12 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3
10th December 2024 7 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2
11th December 2024 4 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 0
12th December 2024 4 2 1 0 1 1 2 2 1
13th December 2024 2 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 1
14th December 2024 8 1 1 1 3 2 3 2 2
15th December 2024 9 2 2 1 3 3 2 2 2
16th December 2024 11 1 3 3 3 1 2 3 3
17th December 2024 20 3 4 4 4 3 4 2 3
18th December 2024 12 3 1 2 3 2 4 3 1
19th December 2024 9 4 2 1 1 2 3 1 2
20th December 2024 10 3 2 1 1 3 2 3 3
21st December 2024 13 3 3 1 3 3 2 3 3
22nd December 2024 15 2 1 2 3 4 4 3 3
23rd December 2024 11 3 1 2 1 2 4 2 3
24th December 2024 9 2 2 1 1 3 3 2 3
25th December 2024 5 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 0
26th December 2024 3 0 0 1 0 2 2 1 1
27th December 2024 3 1 0 0 0 2 2 1 0
28th December 2024 4 0 0 1 1 2 3 2 0
29th December 2024 5 1 0 1 2 2 2 2 1
30th December 2024 7 1 1 2 1 2 3 2 2
31st December 2024 10 0 1 2 1 2 4 3 3
1st January 2025 48 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 4
2nd January 2025 14 3 3 2 4 3 3 2 2
3rd January 2025 7 2 3 3 1 1 2 1 1
4th January 2025 21 2 4 4 4 4 4 3 2
5th January 2025 12 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2
6th January 2025 13 3 4 3 2 3 2 2 2
7th January 2025 1 2 2 2 2

High Latitude

Date A K-indices
9th December 2024 39 2 2 4 5 5 7 4 2
10th December 2024 13 2 2 3 5 3 2 2 0
11th December 2024 15 1 1 5 4 4 2 0 1
12th December 2024 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0
13th December 2024 5 0 0 1 3 2 3 0 0
14th December 2024 23 0 0 2 5 4 5 5 1
15th December 2024 19 0 2 2 5 5 4 2 2
16th December 2024 30 0 2 6 6 4 3 4 2
17th December 2024 31 3 6 5 4 4 4 3 2
18th December 2024 18 3 1 2 4 4 4 4 2
19th December 2024 8 3 2 1 2 3 2 1 2
20th December 2024 12 3 2 0 2 4 3 3 2
21st December 2024 11 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2
22nd December 2024 23 2 1 2 5 5 4 4 3
23rd December 2024 13 3 1 1 1 4 4 2 3
24th December 2024 16 2 2 1 0 5 5 2 2
25th December 2024 3 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0
26th December 2024 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
27th December 2024 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0
28th December 2024 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 0
29th December 2024 5 0 0 3 3 1 0 0 1
30th December 2024 9 0 0 4 2 4 1 1 1
31st December 2024 15 0 0 5 3 1 4 3 3
1st January 2025 13 2 6 5 7 8 8 7 2
2nd January 2025 51 3 1 4 7 6 6 5 3
3rd January 2025 3 1 1 2 2 0 1 1 0
4th January 2025 62 1 5 7 6 5 6 6 3
5th January 2025 34 3 2 3 5 6 5 5 2
6th January 2025 20 2 2 3 5 5 4 2 1
7th January 2025 1 2 6 5 3

About

The K-index quantifies disturbances in the horizontal component of earth's magnetic field with an integer in the range 0–9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm. It is derived from the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer during a three-hour interval. The label K comes from the German word Kennziffer meaning “characteristic digit”. The K-index was introduced by Julius Bartels in 1938.

The Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index is derived at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center using data from the following ground-based magnetometers:

  • Sitka, Alaska
  • Meanook, Canada
  • Ottawa, Canada
  • Fredericksburg, Virginia
  • Hartland, UK
  • Wingst, Germany
  • Niemegk, Germany
  • Canberra, Australia

These data are made available thanks to the cooperative efforts between SWPC and data providers around the world, which currently includes the U.S. Geological Survey, Natural Resources Canada (NRCAN), the British Geological Survey, the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), and Geoscience Australia. Important magnetometer observations are also contributed by the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris and the Korean Space Weather Center K-index Watches are issued when the highest predicted NOAA estimated Kp-indices for a day are K = 5, 6, 7, or >= 8 and is reported in terms of the NOAA G scale. K-index Warnings are issued when NOAA estimated Kp-indices of 4, 5, 6, and 7 or greater are expected. K-index Alerts are issued when the NOAA estimated Kp-indices reach 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9.


More info
Data source: NOAA, Wikipedia

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