ORDINARY CELLS - Severe weather potential

Click for ordinary cells severe weather
With ordinary cell / pulse storms highest potential is for:

Large hail

Item Parameter Yes No
1 Low freezing level respectively to surface
2 High moisture contents in the lower levels
3 MUCAPE>800 J/kg
4 MUCAPE>>1000 J/kg

Severe convective wind gusts - DOWNBURSTS

Item Parameter Yes No
1 Favorable Skew-T profile: inverted V
2 SurfThetaE-MinimunThetaE>13K
3 SurfThetaE-MinimunThetaE>20K

Excessive precipitations & Flash floods

Item Parameter Yes No
1 Deep trough from the NW and Omega blocking anticyclone over the E
2 Low level Jet advecting large moisture contents
3 Probability of convective precipitations >10% (TP poor-man ensenble)?
Skew-T features
1 Quasi Moist adiabatic profile
2 Skinny CAPE profile
3 High PW >30-35 mm
4 Low LCLs
5 Warm mid level temperatures (high 0 isotherm)
6 Weak mid-level flow or // to the boundary
Persistence
1 Upscale growth suggested by HR models?
2 Backbuilding (low level stream crosses the boundary within a weak DLS environment)
3 Low level Jet crossing the boundary
4 The trigger line is stationary (stationary convergence or orography)